The EUR/USD pair is targeting a drop to 1.1470 support on November 21, 2025, slumping to a five-month low of 1.1513—a 0.12% daily slide extending 0.84% monthly weakness—pressured by ECB’s accelerating easing consensus and a resurgent dollar index at 100.45 post-Fed hawkishness. This breach below 1.1550—under the 50-day EMA at 1.1570—confirms downtrend resumption, with RSI at 42 signaling further erosion to 1.1470 Fibonacci troughs if 1.1500 cracks, per FXStreet’s bearish 2025 outlook eyeing parity risks. For euro bears, the pair’s falling channel—measured from September’s 1.1920 high—targets 1.1400 static if November’s 1.1470 low yields, though Stochastic at 48% hints modest 1.1570 rebounds on PMI surprises above 45.
ECB November 13 minutes exposed rifts favoring 50 bps December trims to counter 0.7% GDP forecasts and 4.1% services inflation, contrasting Fed’s 4.25-4.50% hold and widening yield gaps to 320 bps, eroding euro calls 18%. EPFR’s $32 billion weekly outflows to USD havens slow amid Middle East de-escalation, but ZEW sentiment cratering to -18.5 (July nadir) exposes EMU frailties, with retail sales +0.2% QoQ tempering 6.7% unemployment upticks. Cross-pairs compound: EUR/GBP at 0.8350 (-0.15%) on BoE resilience, EUR/JPY at 181.20 (-0.8%) via yen bleed.
YTD’s 10.50% gain masks November’s -0.84% rout, WalletInvestor targeting 1.1200 mid-2026 on policy chasms and 1.0330 parity if selling persists. DailyFX eyes 1.1470 as interim before 1.1450, with 1.1578 minor resistance. This 1.1470 target—1.1513 low—positions euro as G10 laggard, urging EUR/CHF parity longs below 1.1550 with 1.1500 stops. As ECB summits near, bears dominate sans growth sparks, forging euro’s descent in fractured forex.
