IMF’s April 22 World Economic Outlook slashes global growth to 2.8% 2025 and 3.0% 2026, down from 3.3% January update.
Tariffs and uncertainty shave 0.4 percentage points, U.S. to 1.8% 2026 1.7%, Euro area 0.8% 1.2%.
Trade war risks elevate 30% recession probability from 17% October, policy buffers erode resilience to shocks.
Inflation revised up 0.1% each year, disinflation continues but trade tensions fuel import prices.
U.S. tariffs at century highs, China retaliation, EU countermeasures hinder short-term, long-term growth.
China growth 4.5% 2025 4.2% 2026, India 6.6% 6.5%, Japan 1.1% 1.0%.
This warning’s subtle symphony unveils not forecast’s cadence, but economy‘s durable dance—veiled veils of 2.8% from tariffs, where policy’s artistry yields resilience’s radius in global’s majestic march.
