We can already discern the political ramifications of Donald Trump’s conviction on several counts of hush money payments to porn actress two weeks later: He has been slightly injured by it.
For instance, after the jury verdict was made public, Trump’s lead over President Biden has decreased by 0.8 percentage points according to the average of public surveys tracked by the website FiveThirtyEight.
Although it’s a tiny change, it occurs in a very close race: As of right now, the polling average has the two candidates virtually tied at 41% for Trump and 40% for Biden.
A word of caution regarding polling: surveys provide us with the most accurate information regarding the opinions and thoughts of voters. They are a priceless resource.
However, they are not flawless, and extremely tight races draw attention to their flaws.
Among other issues: We are unable to tell for sure, so pollsters must estimate which people will actually cast ballots this autumn. Every poll has a margin of error that indicates the degree of uncertainty included in the results. It is typical for polls to be four to five points off from the final results in statewide races. It is impossible to predict which side the error will support ahead of time.
To put it briefly, polls are valuable tools, but they lack the accuracy necessary to determine a winner in a contest this tight. Remember that when the statistics fluctuate from now until election day.
Probably no game-changers
Furthermore, polls are only a snapshot, and a lot can happen between now and November that could affect them. The projected Biden-Trump debate on June 27 is the first item on the list. It also includes Trump’s July 11 sentencing, his choice of a running mate, the two party conventions, a September second debate, and probably additional unknowable events.
However, be skeptical of promises that those or anything else will revolutionize the game.
The opinions of voters regarding these two men are well-known to them. (The most recent national survey by reputable Republican firm Echelon Insights shows that 55% of respondents dislike Trump and 57% of respondents dislike Biden.)
The remaining electorate, which consists primarily of those who are uninterested in politics or news, may prove to be crucial to the result. However, this group is limited.
To put it briefly, this game is unlikely to change. This is how it seems.
The routes leading to 270
Biden won 25 states, one congressional district in Nebraska, the District of Columbia, and one electoral vote in 2020. His total electoral votes were 306 against Trump’s 232.
Currently, 19 of those states, along with D.C., give Biden a total of 226 electoral votes.
Georgia, a state that Biden won previously, is currently leaning toward Trump. Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are the other five states that Biden is running for. Their combined electoral votes total 61.
All but one of the twenty-five states that Trump won are still firmly in his corner. North Carolina is an anomaly, leaning toward him. Although Democrats had hoped to make it competitive, that is currently not the case.
In order to secure the 270 electoral votes required for victory, Biden must secure an additional 44 electoral votes above his present count.
Current polls indicate that winning the three competitive northern industrial states would be his greatest chance. They would provide him with just what he needs together. Recent surveys in all three indicate a very close race.
Regarding Trump, he would have 251 electoral votes if he could hold Georgia and North Carolina. If Pennsylvania’s 19 were won, he would be in the White House.
Trump’s benefit
Everything about that seems incredibly familiar: As in 2016 and 2020, the election will probably be decided by narrow margins in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in particular.
This time, though, there’s a twist.
By focusing on the complaints of conservative white Americans, Trump was able to win in 2016. This time, he has an advantage against Biden because Black and Latino voters are supporting him.
Although Biden continues to lead both categories, his margins have narrowed considerably from four years ago.
This is demonstrated by a recent Marist College survey of Pennsylvania voters. In a state that both candidates need this year and that Biden won in 2020, the survey finds Trump just ahead of Biden.
According to the study, 47% of registered voters support Trump, compared to 45% who back Biden. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent, has 3%.
The reason for the shift from 2020 is not because Trump has gained favor with the state’s white majority; rather, Biden receives nearly exactly the same amount of support from them as he did in the past.
What has changed, according to exit polls, is that Trump receives 23% of Black voters, as opposed to just 7% of them in 2020.
Recent surveys conducted in other competitive states have shown the same thing. For instance, a Fox News poll taken in Arizona shortly after the criminal case ruling in New York revealed that Trump was winning 51% to 46% of respondents, a finding that was consistent with other recent polls conducted in the state.
Similar to Pennsylvania, white voters in Arizona have not changed; according to the poll, Trump leads them by roughly 9 points. Since Biden barely prevailed in the state four years ago, his lead among Latino voters has shrunk to eight points, which is less than half of what it was.
The details of those public surveys have been contested by several Democratic pollsters, who claim that they exaggerate the support that Trump is receiving from voters of color. However, even they concur that, compared to 2020, Biden is receiving less support from Black and Latino populations.
The danger of Trump
Pollsters usually receive the feedback from Black and Latino voters who have switched from Biden to Trump—or, more frequently, from unsure to a third party—that they feel their financial situation has improved under Trump’s leadership.
However, this does not mean that they approve of Trump or are excited about his return to the White House. That provides Biden with a chance.
If their perception of the state of the economy shifts over the course of the next few months, it will be simpler to take advantage of that opening. Given that most American workers’ earnings are rising more quickly than prices, it may occur.
However, the crucial question may be “whether Trump can sustain his support among non-Whites while offering… a bristling message and agenda on race-related issues” that energises his core base of white, conservative supporters, according to political expert Ron Brownstein.
Trump has frequently advocated for the widespread deportation of undocumented immigrants, who make up a large portion of the Latino community, as well as the return of stop-and-frisk police practices, which many communities have abandoned due to concerns about civil rights abuses.
With the exception of Trump’s supporters, their policies are unpopular. Many people who are just now beginning to pay attention to the campaign, particularly the younger ones, haven’t heard anything about them. Over the coming months, Democrats will put forth extra effort to ensure that this changes.
The fact that Trump is attempting to pull off a high-wire act in an attempt to win over younger Black and Latino voters while threatening to carry out mass deportations and unleash the cops on their neighborhoods may be his greatest weakness.
The primary shortcomings of Biden
Regarding Biden, his age of eighty-one continues to be his greatest vulnerability.
Voters were questioned in an Echelon Insights survey to rank their level of anxiety over two issues: Biden’s age and mental health or Trump’s past criminal convictions. Of those surveyed, 50% cited Biden’s age and 44% cited Trump’s convictions.
By a wide margin, Republicans expressed greater concern over Biden’s age. Yet independents also did, by 45% to 42%. Furthermore, according to 1 in 8 of Biden’s 2020 supporters, that was their top worry.
White House staff have kept Biden mostly hidden for the past three and a half years, steering clear of big press conferences and in-person conversations with journalists where the president’s history of verbal blunders could pose a risk.
However, Biden has spent nearly his whole adult life campaigning for public office. He has experienced some spectacular setbacks as well as the pinnacle of political achievement. He can step up to the plate when necessary, as he demonstrated in this year’s State of the Union address.
Voters will be closely observing his every move over the coming months as the campaign heats up to see if he falters. He will have the chance to persuade them that he can work for a further four years at this position. His fate is mostly in his own hands because the race is still tight enough and his opponent is still susceptible enough.
