AUD/USD shattered 0.67 resistance on November 15, 2025, surging 0.8% to 0.6715—its highest since September—as RBA’s hawkish pause at 4.35% contrasts Fed’s dovish three-cut path, amplified by iron ore’s $110/ton rebound and China’s 5.2% industrial output. This breakout from a multi-month rectangle—up 2.1% weekly—validates a head-and-shoulders bottom at 0.6420, with forecasts eyeing 0.6750 amid softening U.S. yields below 4.2%. As risk sentiment tilts, AUD/USD‘s resistance breach reshapes antipodean dynamics in a narrowing policy gap.
Aussie’s anchors solidify: October jobs added 55.3k full-time roles, unemployment steady at 4.2%, reinforcing RBA’s lone 2025 trim versus Fed’s 75 bps easing. Commodity tailwinds: WTI at $78.50 and ASX 200 futures up 1.2% bolster exports, while DXY’s sub-102 fade erodes dollar bids. U.S. NFP softness—post-holiday—spurs sympathy rallies, with 200-week SMA at 0.6677 now support. Political stability—May 2025 elections—curbs volatility, projecting 1.8% GDP if trade thaws.
From charts, AUD/USD’s bullish flag post-0.6567 breach sees RSI at 58 upward, volume spiking 28% in commodity pairs. The pair eyes 0.6754 pivot, backed by 21-day EMA at 0.6680. Support at 0.6650 aligns with November VPOC, sub-0.6620 risks 0.6560 channel floor. Implied vol at 10.5% reflects RBA rhetoric.
This 0.67 break electrifies NZD crosses, up 0.6%, pressuring U.S. importers amid tariffs. For portfolios, it highlights AUD’s yield proxy in Fed fatigue. As 2026 nears, AUD/USD narrates divergence: Aussie ascent versus dollar deceleration. Track November 26 RBA—hawkish holds could propel 0.6800, etching the break as AUD’s bullish breakout.
