Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempers expectations for a December rate cut October 29, stating it’s “far from guaranteed” and policy is “not on a preset course.”
The Federal Reserve cuts benchmark rate 25 basis points to 4.75%-5%, second consecutive 2025 reduction, 10-2 vote with Bowman, Schmid dissenting.
Inflation at 3% above 2% target, September CPI data, unemployment 4.3% highest since 2021, September jobs +29,000 below expectations.
Shutdown data blackout complicates outlook, Powell notes “no risk-free path,” tariffs fueling inflation, downside employment risks emerging.
Quantitative tightening ends December 1, balance sheet $9 trillion peak shrinking since June 2022, reserves drain paused.
Markets react negatively, Dow -1.9%, S&P -2.71%, Nasdaq -3.56%, 92% odds for December cut pre-meeting drop to 70%.
This tempering’s subtle symphony unveils not cut’s cadence, but policy’s durable dance—veiled veils of 4.75%-5% from inflation’s 3%, where Fed’s artistry yields reinvention’s radius in economy’s majestic march.
