Siemens AG braced for a sharper currency bite on November 14, 2025, as CEO Roland Busch warned of substantial FX headwinds eroding 2026 forecasts, following a €447 million adverse impact in Q3 that dragged industrial profit down 7% to €2.82 billion. This escalation—up from €200 million tariff-FX drags in 2025—stems from a weakening U.S. dollar against the euro, hammering North American revenue streams that comprise 25% of sales, amid global trade frictions and Fed easing bets. With fiscal 2025 revenue hitting a record €78.9 billion (up 5%), Siemens’ currency crunch eyes €10.40-€11.00 EPS pre-PPA for 2026, down 5-10% from prior guidance, underscoring European exporters’ vulnerability in a bifurcated yield landscape.
The euro’s 2.1% YTD surge versus the dollar amplifies translation losses, as Siemens’ Digital Industries—its profit engine—projects -6% to +1% revenue growth for FY25, burdened by Altair and Dotmatics acquisitions adding €0.15 EPS drag. Q4 orders dipped 1% to €21.4 billion on Mobility’s high base, yet free cash flow soared to €10.8 billion, a 14% sales ratio, bolstering dividends to €5.35 per share. Contrasting ECB’s steady 2.00% deposit rate, the Fed’s three 2025 cuts widen differentials, with 10-year bunds at 1.9% versus Treasuries at 4.1%. Reserves at €25 billion shield against volatility, projecting 6-8% revenue growth if GDP stabilizes near 1.2%, per OBR echoes.
Technically, SIEGY’s slide etches a descending channel from July’s €165 peak, RSI at 45 neutral amid 20% aerospace volumes. Support at €150 hugs 50-day EMA, resistance at €158 tests Q4 pivot. Sub-€148 eyes €140 Fibonacci, but AI investments—data centers up 40% to €2.9 billion—target €170. Volatility at 22% anticipates tariff truces.
This currency bite ripples to DAX futures, down 0.8%, favoring U.S. peers like GE amid 70% cost edges. For investors, it spotlights hedging imperatives in euro strength. As 2026 unfolds, Siemens’ FX saga narrates resilience: profit perseverance versus translation torment. Monitor February results—mitigation beats could lift €180, framing headwinds as Siemens’ strategic squeeze.
