U.S. federal budget deficit shrinks to $1.8 trillion for FY2025, 6.4% of GDP, down from $1.7 trillion in FY2024, Treasury November 13 data.
Revenues climb to $4.9 trillion, up 8% year-over-year, driven by individual income taxes +5.2%, corporate +15%.
Outlays rise to $6.8 trillion, +4.2%, with interest on debt $1.0 trillion +37%, Social Security $1.5 trillion +6.7%.
$1.4 trillion tariff revenue offsets -0.6% permanent GDP level impact, Budget Lab October 17 dynamic analysis.
Conference Board forecasts 1.5% GDP 2026, tariffs shave 0.4 points, uncertainty adds downside risks.
OECD projects 1.5% U.S. growth 2026, 3.9% inflation end 2025, retaliation risks further 0.8 points.
This shrinking’s quiet contraction unveils new era where deficit’s slight retreat bridges fiscal voids, transforming economy with enduring tension.
