WTI crude oil has slid sharply on November 23, 2025, settling at $57.89 per barrel—a 1.89% daily plunge extending 1.05% monthly weakness—pressured by Iraq’s resumption of Kurdistan exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline at 185,000 bpd, signaling oversupply as global inventories build, per Reuters and EIA data. This drop—down 18.75% YoY—reflects API’s 4.4 million barrel crude stock rise for the week to November 14, with gasoline and distillate also building, reinforcing Goldman Sachs’ 2 million bpd global surplus forecast for 2026. For oil bears, RSI at 35 oversold eyes $55.12 April lows if $57.00 support cracks, though Stochastic at 28% hints $60.03 rebounds on OPEC+ surprises, with LiteFinance projecting $57.808 as of November 23.
Iraq’s flows dominate: the cabinet-approved restart—gradually increasing from 185,000 bpd through SOMO—adds to non-OPEC supply from Brazil/Guyana, with EIA’s November 12 STEO forecasting 2.2 million bpd inventory increases in 2026, peaking 2.7 million bpd in Q4 2025/Q1 2026. China’s stockpiling amid soft refinery demand contributes, per OilPrice.com, with Brent at $64.18 (1.05% up) diverging slightly. Technically, WTI’s 52-week range ($55.12 low to $80.77 high) evokes 2020’s -$40.32 nadir, with backwardation confirming $57.00 floors amid Fed’s 32% December cut odds.
Cross-commodity: natural gas +1.44%, but OPEC+ unwinds and non-OPEC growth outpace demand, per EIA, with EFG International noting $15/bbl drop from 2024 end limited by geopolitical premiums. FXEmpire eyes $52-56 Brent/WTI averages in 2026. This Iraq-flow slide—$57.89 trough—epitomizes oversupply’s siege: shorts below $58.50 with $57.00 stops, where builds aren’t buffers—they’re burdens in energy’s precarious pump.
